Louisville, Kentucky- The Breeders Cup edition 35 is back at Churchill Downs for the 9th time while in Kentucky for the 10th time. It’s nice to see it move around as it does allow for different fan bases to attend and does keep the East vs West showdowns to have their own homecourt advantage, but wow the weather just never truly cooperates.
I attend the Breeders Cup every year, I enjoy this weekend more then any other horse racing weekend and yes that includes the Derby. Why? Simple, you get 13 Derby’s and this year they added a 14th as the Juvenile Turf Sprint has been added to up the total Cup races to 14. I still think they need to bring back the Marathon, sure it’s a race that we typically don’t train to have in North America, but it’s part of racing lore and it needs to be added (hopefully the powers that be might be listening). The race however is in the undercard, race 10 on Friday and drew a field of 10 entrants.
Back to the weather, Louisville is getting doused on Wednesday & Thursday which should create a softer turf while the main track takes water well and should be fine for both days, temps will be in the 50’s. My inclination is the track will hurt speed horses and one run types but should play fair.
Last year, I got out to San Diego early in the week and enjoyed some local attractions before spending three days at Del Mar; food was great, race track was great, and the weather was picture perfect…but like major sports, there is a noticeable bias to the home court advantage. Speed horses and West Coast based runners excel when the Cup is in California, that trend flips when the Cup heads East.
The last 2 times the Breeders Cup has been in California, Californian based runners won 10 of the 26 races. (38%)
Conversely, the last 2 times the Breeder’s Cup has been in Kentucky, Californian based runners won 4 of 28 races. (14%)
With Bob Baffert, Jerry Hollendorfer, John Sadler, & Peter Miller just to name a few well-known recognizable trainers based in Cali it’s easiest to surmise that they have in the past brought some serious fire power over here, yet only 2 of the 9 Classic winners raced in Kentucky were based in California.
Speaking of John Sadler, he will be sending 2 odds on choices to the starting gate including the Classic favorite Accelerate and he also a 3rd runner that will be well supported as a likely 2nd choice, firepower…you betcha but he currently has never saddled a winner sporting a 0 for 41 Cup record, yikes…..oh yeah and he has to try to buck that trend while shipping across the country.
As mentioned, a new race was added bring us to 14 Cup races total, but the also changed the format to Friday being all two-year-old races dubbing it Future Stars Friday with all the other races on Saturday. Both Friday’s & Saturday’s undercard races are awesome. Frankly for a horse player, this is 2 days of pure bliss.
From wagering option menu, we will still have .10 cent Superfecta’s available on all races as well as .50 cent Pick 3’s, .50 Pick 4’s, and Trifecta’s available, as well as a .50 Pick 5 for both days.
The weather leading up the event has been above mild temps with heavy precipitation; the forecast for both Friday and Saturday call for mild/cool temp, partly sunny with 20% chance of precipitation, track conditions will be very favorable for the European runners.
Enough chatting let’s look a little deeper into the races:
Friday
Race 5 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
New Cup race drew a full field of 12 with 6 NA based runners and 6 European, should be a great kickoff to the weekend.
Contenders:
#2 Soldier’s Call – I have always given an extra nudge to the Euro contingents who come across the pond, but this is the only one I like in here, ascending speed figures and has 2 wins of soft sod, no disgrace in France run in last finishing a game 3rd in a deep field of 16, adds Lasix for this, only knock is trainer is 0 for 3 in states, I think changes those stats in inaugural running.
#7 Shang Shang Shang – Ward saddles 4 runners in here, but I like this one the best as he took all 4 of them to Ascot, 3 of them got trounced, this one won, that is enough for me, also picks up Velazquez, lots of positives to win win win.
#5 Bulletin – Ward is a fantastic two-year-old trainer, but Pletcher is just as good if not better, like the fact they went straight to stakes instead of a maiden, gives a ton of experience up to the others but I can’t see how he won’t be up to the task.
Betability:
Great opener, wish they would have let 14 in here, should be a rider’s race and the way 2-year olds are on the grass they can move up or retreat their form quickly so cover yourself.
Race 6 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf
Full field and tons of value, history has shown this to be a perplexing race. In the 10 running’s, a favorite has only won once
Contenders:
#6 Newspaperofrecord – For those loyal listeners, no I haven’t gone insane, yes, I normally land on a Euro in this race and yes, a perfect spot to try to beat the chalk, but I just can’t get past the 2 well backed romps with ascending speed figures. Technically, this is a European bred runner so give me a slight mulligan but seems to respond when asked and has already shown the penchant to win over soft ground, bet 3/2 in the unveiling at Saratoga this summer so the barn buzz was out, she just looks heads and tails better then these.
#8 Belle Laura – Nice big filly, was gobbling up ground in last which was visually impressive, the bad is she was 48 to 1 that day and her figs are on the light side, she did break her maiden over this course so we know she likes it, Casse training family burns a lot of money on the big days so proceed with caution but I think you will get 25+ to 1 so a live one who will be moving late.
#5 La Pelosa – Godolphin runner came to North America and made a big splash winning the Natalma at Woodbine, drops below the border for this run and like that they picked Buick back up, she was fully extended in that run though and did have a good solid pace to run it, just thinking that the group was pretty good and maybe she goes forward.
Betability:
As I said I am chalked out, but there are a few others in her that grab me as well such as the #2 The Mackham Bullet who has been 20 to 1 or better in each of her last 3 races yet has hit the board every time, if my top pick stubs her toe could be anyone’s race although I think we are looking at the next Lady Eli.
Race 7 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly
A race that has produced 4 out of the last 5 years of a minimum of a 17 to 1 winner (the one in between was the standout Songbird) unfortunately with only 10 signed on, that trend should get reversed here as a few standout.
Contenders:
#10 Bellafina – I know the bias is to bet against the CA shippers and this is the 1st Cup race where you have the East vs West showdown in full effect, but I am going with the West here. Kaleem Shah isn’t afraid to spend money as this 800K yearling purchase has already made just shy of $500K so she is on track to become a positive expectation should she win this, I’m not betting against her.
#7 Jaywalk – Has the same past performance lines as my top pick, 4 starts, 3 wins, 1 second and both ran 2nd in their maiden debut. Also, like Bellafina they both have shown versatility of able to rate, stalk, or run on the lead…..both fillies have the stride, I just feel Bellafina might be a bit better, but couldn’t argue with anyone for backing her.
#2 Serengeti Empress – Unlike my top two picks, this gal seems more of a need the lead type which I think might make her vulnerable late, but she comes off a local blowout score in the Pocahontas of 19 lengths and that was against a strong closing bias track, she has the now CD rider Lanerie in the irons which is another big plus, connections will send her and see how far she can go, I’m thinking she will stay for a slice but not for top honors.
Betability:
Really like my top two picks as they both jump off the page, also if you are looking for some spice to the Trifecta or Superfecta the #5 Cassies Dreamer looks to be the one who will be running best late, not a great race to bet unless you are looking to make some short money.
Race 8 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
The Euro’s have won 5 out of the past 7 years and 8 of the 11 running’s, but they only bring 5 this year. In the 11 running’s, the shortest priced winner has been 2.50 to 1 and the longest priced horse was 12.50 to 1, so despite the bulky fields, the race has run pretty formful.
Contenders:
#5 Line of Duty – Godolphin, Appleby, & Buick team up again, this Galileo daughter has been well supported by the public going off the favorite in all 4 tilts, this is a big jump up in competition, but she has won on a soft course and her figs keep getting better, a nice live shot if he ships well and moves forward.
#14 Anthony Van Dyck – Trainer O’Brien won this race last year and brings another formidable runner. Got beat in last by Too Darn Hot who is considered the highest rated 2-year-old in all of Europe so that class puts him seriously in the mix, must overcome the draw, but that is Ryan Moore’s job.
#12 Current – Was flying in the stretch in latest Keeneland run getting his nose up on the wire, certainly the pedigree is there as he fetched $725,000 at the sale, another with an outside draw that will need some luck and magic from the rider, my only real knock is Todd’s good ones usually get obliterated at the windows and this guy has only had mild support.
Betabilty:
I have always given a major nod to the European runners that venture over for the Breeders Cup on the sod and this year is no different, although I just don’t feel this group is as good as we have seen in past. I have a gut feeling an American based runner at a big price will step up, try to find him.
Race 9 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Last three year’s winners went on to be Derby horses so someone in here might be the next great one! A full field of 14 to the gate, another solid East vs West showdown, Derby fever starts now.
Contenders:
#6 Complexity – He’s the speed of the speed having done nothing wrong in his brief career, numbers are eye popping and the team of Klaravich/Brown have another solid runner. Brown won this last year with a maiden, looks to go to be true on paper. The only negative I see is he won’t be alone on the lead and I am not wowed by the breeding which suggests 1 turn races in his future, still he’s the current leader of the division so he deserves the tepid call in a snug group.
#11 Code of Honor – Shug looks like he has got another Triple Crown hopeful the blood shows the further they go the more he will like it, had a troubled trip in last and still came running on my top pick, should the juices be flowing early at they get down to ¾ in sub 1:10 I think he has a big chance to turn the tables, could be any kind.
#4 Tight Ten – Not all the BC races go to plans and trip handicapping this should be the guy sitting right off the speed 3rd to the turn behind Complexity & Mind Control, he has a win over the track so he gets a slight edge in the experience category, not sold on him that he is fast enough to hang with these, but at what should be a juicy 20 to 1 price or better, I think he’ll find a way to get on the ticket.
Betability:
A very nice race, I didn’t even mention the likely post-time prohibitive favorite Game Winner out of the Bob Baffert barn, somebody is going to get their heart broke in here, will it be the East’s beast Complexity or the West wonder Game Winner…or maybe even someone else? Fast fact the post time favorite is 1 for the last 11 editions.
Saturday
Race 3 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
The favorite has won 3 of the last 6 (although last year Bar of Gold became the longest priced winner in the race history at 66 to 1 last year), we do get a full field, but we got another west coast shipper that looks to be a very popular favorite to try to beat.
Contenders:
#3 Happy Like a Fool – I feel like this pick is a bit of going off the deep end like Frank the Tank when he decided to go streaking in Old School, very bold initiative. This gal will be quickly dismissed since she ran a flat 4th 4 weeks ago across the state at Keeneland, but if you look at the PP’s she used the same springboard to a blow out win Preakness weekend off a flat prep, she hadn’t been out since May so I am banking she needed to tighten the screws, the bullet 5 days ago tells me all systems go, the price will be right in what I expect to be a head scratcher.
#7 Mia Mischief – Has went to the gate 10 times in her career and popped out of the gate favored 9 times so the barn obviously loves her, got to love her local record of 4 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds. Likes to run on the lead but has proven she is not a lead the type and there are a bunch of those in here, expecting her to be sitting off the blazers and she might get the 1st run and be holding off the closers.
#1 Selcourt – Speaking of speed, this gal races one way, go go go…the fence draw will force her to be rolling from the gate and she has been off since March but she did run a 96 speed figure off a similar 8 month layoff before in a 7 length score, the problem is the biggest field she has faced has been 8 runners and she won’t be left along yet along Sadler’s 0 for 41 BC record, don’t think she can win but might just hang around to fill out the trifecta or super.
Betability:
The most wide-open cup race so far, my two top selections will both be long double digits, so I am going fishing and pitching both favorites who coincidentally are both California invaders, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a repeat of 2017 result, batter up.
Race 4 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
The 5.5 furlongs makes this an interesting race as a bunch want more land and few others want less, another full field of 14 which helps the betting including last year’s 1-2-3 finishers.
Contenders:
#13 Will Call – Talk about a horse for a course and a horse for the distance, he’s 2 for 2 over this strip and 6 of 8 in the exacta going this distance, most others this isn’t their ideal distance. His sire, Country Day was 2nd in this race in 11’ so maybe daddy has passed on the right blood, conditioner Cox keeps getting better each year and the only two knocks here are the draw and the fact he’s never run a triple digit speed figure.
#7 Lost Treasure – The European invaders always leave their mark on every Cup, but can’t say they have made any noise in Turf Sprint so far, this O’Brien runner has the look he might be ready to flip that, had a troubled trip at Longchamp or he might even be a Group I winner, don’t like they keep fooling with his equipment as hood comes off after putting on in last run, he’s awful fit as this will be his 5th race in 35 days, lots of question marks, let’s see what his answer is.
#11 World of Trouble – Was the buzz horse at the Tampa Bay Derby and many thought he was a legit Triple Crown threat, proved that day he didn’t want classic distances but was plenty fast. Connections backed up and flopped again at Belmont main which preempted a move the grass which as resulted in two stellar wins, my main knock is he looks like he just wants the engine and either of Miller’s speedsters might be a tad quicker to the punch, nice to somehow shake loose, but according to the figs, he might be up for the task,
Betability:
I like that Churchill is tabbing this race at 5.5, makes it a great betting race as Disco Partner & Conquest Tsunami want more land, some others want less, gives the gamblers exactly what the yearn for which is a great perplexing betting. Even though I didn’t use any of Peter Miller’s trio, I get the feeling at least 1 of them will find his way onto the tote board. I don’t like #5 Disco Partner at all, horse is only 1 for 5 at distance, doesn’t like anything but firm sod, and oh yeah the trainer is 0 for 35 in the Cup, buyer beware on that one.
Race 5 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Betting favorites winning are 2 for 11 in this race and those 2 were Goldencents & Liam’s Map which were both standouts, so price shopping isn’t such a bad idea.
Contenders:
#1 City of Light – The biggest disappointment I had last year’s Cup with this guy as my cronies & I had him singled in a multi leg wager and we got let down, he only ran a 85 Beyer speed figure that day which was the 2nd worst of his career, he certainly grew up at four having run 5 straight triple digit figures including handing Accelerate his only defeat of the season, ride Van Dyke does opt for the Sadler runner which would scare most off, I’m pulling for a vindication run with a slight upset against the next Sadler superstar
#10 Catalina Cruiser – On paper, looks like the standout as he is unbeaten and virtually untested since he has romped in every tilt, he scared a bunch off to as only 9 others decided to try him, the draw is ideal as well, the rider as already mentioned choose off a million dollar proven performer to take the mount so can’t argue with anyone for having this number on there ticket. With all that said, he gets a big test for class here as he hasn’t been in this end of the deep part of the pool yet, also has the 0 for 41 Sadler curse to overcome and Halloween was just a few days ago, will need to bring A game for the streak to continue.
#6 Seeking the Soul – Connections have always given this guy a chance on the big stage, but let’s face it, he is just a notch below the top ones so this is a great spot for him, has a great local record having almost made a half million running around this track, will be on the scene late and if somehow my top two picks decide to throw the gauntlet down on each other, he could be the major benefactor.
Betability:
Love City of Light, and love that we likely will get 2 /3 to 1 on him, he’s proven and has already shown shipping is not a problem, gets the experience edge in here and I wouldn’t key off anyone else.
Race 6 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Another race where the European Bred Runners have shown dominance winning 12 of the 19 editions, but North American runners have won in 15’ & 14’. Both continents are very well, a deep group of 14.
Contenders:
#14 Eziyra – Has won 4 of last 5 runs albeit against lesser competition, but three of those were yielding are soft turf which is expected track condition in here. Her last 2 defeats came from Sea of Class & Enable who don’t need an introduction, the connections of Aga Khan, Weld, & Dettori are world class and a lot of others are going to get the publics support. Nice stab in the middle of the Cup.
#6 Sistercharlie – Trainer Brown sends 5 of the 14 to the gate and I like this European transplant the best, since she arrived stateside she is 5 for 5 in the exacta and she required a camera in all those spins as she seems to pace her opponents to the wire. Not sure whose team she officially qualifies for as she has raced in Europe 5 times & US 5 times, so in start 6 in NA lets say she represents the US and is our best hope.
#3 Wild Illusion – Godolphin & Appleby won this race last year so they go for the repeat with the likely public choice, she has traded a few decisions with magi Wans (who is in here) so she certainly is not a free square, yet will be very tough in here, doesn’t add Lasix for this so either she has an amazing set of lungs, or someone is a sleep at the wheel, but a deserved favorite.
Betability:
Numbers don’t lie as the Euro’s simply put own this race so outside of the #6 you need to give all of them a long look, I am not in love with anyone which signals numerous contenders could score here. Great race to have an imagination.
Race 7 Breeders’ Cup Sprint
This used to be one of the more exciting races when full fields were signed on, 10 last year, only 9 this year but you do get the top two that crossed the wire a year ago.
Contenders:
#1 Whitmore – Always liked this guy, but his running style strictly puts him at the mercy of the pace, I actually like the rail draw as his gate mate to the right will be rolling from the bell as well as a few others are going to want to mix it up, eh should find a nice cozy ground saving journey and if Distinctive B pushes the pace as hard as I think he will, the race could fall right in his lap, might be a notch below these as he has lost quite a few decisions to this group, but I am playing the trip.
#2 Promises Fulfilled – Once connections figured out this guy wasn’t a classic distance horse, the lights and winner’s circle started getting filled including 3 straight graded scores. IMO he is the speed of the speed if he wants to use it and local horseman Romans I think is going to go down swinging, never like playing 3-year olds against older, but he has the look of one we haven’t seen the bottom of yet.
#9 Roy H – Defending champ got a nice draw as he can see what is happening to his left and adjust from there, hasn’t been off the board in 2 years which included a trip to Meydan so another one that doesn’t need to be in Cali to fire, stablemate entered in here should be the rabbit which I think will set him up for a nice run, sentimentally he made me 9K last year so thanks Roy H, I wish you well in here.
Betability:
I didn’t even mention Imperial Hint and that guy can go 43 and still stay around for the party, but he is 0 for 2 at CD and the last was over a wet track so I think mother nature could diminish his chances, the short field shrinks the value, but a real nice group to watch and maybe wager a little.
Race 8 Breeders’ Cup Mile
A full field entered that has always been a great betting race, past winners include Goldikova & Wise Dan so immense talent has always been present, this year is no different.
Contenders:
#4 Polydream – Conditioner Head has certainly left his mark on this race winning it twice as a jockey and thrice as a trainer, this lass was hopeless locked in her last race or she might have won by daylight. First time out of France so she must handle the ship which most do, some don’t, she shows she likes some give on the ground and she should be a fair mutual price, the choice.
#7 Expert Eye – One of two Stoute entrants in here, this improving 3 year old has ran some nice figs all summer, I like that they backed up on him after Longchamp and let him get back in his feed tub, similar move earlier this year resulted in a 4 length win, Dettori was aboard two back for a win and gets reunited, I’m very interested.
#14 Mustashry – The other Stoute runner wasn’t very lucky at the draw and has taken the B route hence why this 5-year-old only has $400K on his card, but he drops weight and adds Lasix for this while picking up Buick. Stoute hasn’t won this race, but he’s in the whose who of Euro trainers so either of his has a big chance!
Betability:
Surprisingly, the home team has won this in the last 6 of 7 years, hard to believe and that streak ends this year as I really don’t like any of the US based runners. I’ll be using multiple Euro’s in multi leg wagers.
Race 9 Breeders’ Cup Distaff
How luck are we as we get to see the last 2 Oak’s winners return to the scene of the crime and square off against each other, 9 others look to have a say as well.
Contenders:
#11 Monomoy Girl – has crossed the wire 1st in all 6 starts this year, but the judges stand DQ her to 2nd in her last which was her 1st triple digit figure, loves this track as this is her home court and I love the draw as she has shown she likes to be forwardly placed but doesn’t need the lead to win, favorites score at a 41% clip in the Distaff, all signs point to a win.
#3 La Force – Has only won 2 times in her career but has 3 straight runner-up finishes and they were behind Unique Bella & Vale Dori which are some very nice mares. Has to buck flying across the US but French bred mare is sharp and looks like she will be doing her best running late.
#2 Abel Tasman– 2017 Oak’s winner has had an up and down career, just when you think she might be tailing off she jumps back up, burned a ton of money here this spring failing to hit the board at 3/5, then shipped to Belmont and aired out, dangerous if she brings her A game and could be the main threat to my top pick.
Betability:
I love my top pick, she runs with a chip on her shoulder and deserves to be undefeated, I just can’t see her losing.
Race 10 Breeders’ Cup Turf
Love that we get 13 entered especially with the headliner of Enable leading the pack, has traditionally been a very formful race although the post time favorite has lost 8 straight, the other logical contenders usually spring the upset.
Contenders:
#2 Enable – The two-time Arc champ has only lost once in her illustrious career and that was in her first race of her 3-year-old season. Having her come over is like William Wallace showing up at show and tell day at school, to say I am excited to see her in the flesh is an understatement, I will say that some very other high quality Arc horses have come and haven’t had the success so although she looks unbeatable, she might not be invincible, she also played catch up after some injuries this spring so this is only her 3rd start of the year. No Arc winner has won the Turf in the same year in 6 tries in this series, the trend stops here. She will be forwardly placed and when Frankie says go I think they are chasing a ghost.
#12 Waldgeist – Ran 4th behind Enable in the Arc and that is likely good enough to be 2nd best in here, he is an experienced 4 year old colt with Fabre at the controls so it certainly wouldn’t be a shocker if this son of Galileo jumped up and beat Enable, after all Found beat Gosden’s other golden child named Golden Horn in 2015 in this exacta same state.
#5 Magical – Speaking of upset minded filly’s, this gal was only 5 length’s off Enable in the Arc and went back to Ascot and scored 14 days ago, O’Brien runners are fit this time of year and she looks like she is going to make a big leap into her 4 year old season, would need a Found type of effort to turn the tables.
Betability:
I tend to love imports, but really love this filly, she will be sitting 1st or 2nd the whole way and the distance, footing, or pace shouldn’t compromise her, 3/5 seems awfully fair priced. For exotic players I like Hi Happy #10 or Saddler’s Joy #11 to round out the exotic tickets.
Race 11 Breeders’ Cup Classic
The feature includes 14 of the finest Thoroughbreds in training today from all over the world, a new division champ will be crowned as this division has been looking for a nice face to vary the torch, who will it be?
Contenders:
#11 Mind Your Biscuits – Ok so maybe this pick is a sentimental one, like the Tin Man you got to have some heart. My Gambling buddy Jon always liked this horse and I have another good friend that is associated with the connections so I’ll be pulling for both, but also folks that know me realize I once made a bet on the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl against my beloved Pittsburgh Steelers so although I root with my heart I bet with my head (side note Steelers won the game and Cards covered so in essence hit the daily double) What is not to like analytically? He has a win over the course, has been superior of off tracks and quietly seems to get a little better every year. I made a future bet on him at 19 to 1 and he shows up 6 to 1 on ML, yes, I like him, going the furthest route of land in his career but a patient ride could yield the biggest score of Gaffalione & Summers career.
#2 Roaring Lion – In 2000, I was at Churchill Downs in line behind a guy in the clubhouse that called out a $10,000 win bet on the #14 a horse named Giant’s Causeway , made me take a 2nd look and I decided to add him into my exotic tickets which turned out to be a smart move as he ran his eyeballs out in his first dirt attempt wide through and put Tiznow to the complete test, I don’t know why but I get the feeling history could repeat itself, without a Gun Runner, Arrogate, or California Chrome headlining the group, I think this might be the most vulnerable US bunch we have seen in quiet a while, could be time for a Euro runner to conquer the dirt again.
#6 McKinzie – I like to stir the pot, so I’ll get out my spoon. I think this is Bob’s best 3-year-old and yes that includes a horse named Justify who just happened to win the Triple Crown. Had this guy stayed health I am convinced Justify wouldn’t have won all three or maybe even one. Uncle Bob felt this was his best hope early in the year and like all great athletes sometimes injuries derail the train. It appears he is back on the track and I think big things are still to come, has a good as chance of anyone to win this.
Betability:
Great as the post time favorite has the 14 post, looks to good to be true, is a CA invader with a trainer 0 for 41, sure maybe he can win but what a great time to go shopping to get out. I think 9 horses in here could win it, take your swing.
Good Luck and enjoy the greatest two days of racing on the Earth. As my friend Bobby says (taken from Harvey Pack), May the horse be with you.
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at TheEquineinvestor.com