Kentucky Derby-(Louisville, Kentucky) the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby is carded as race 12 this Saturday at Churchill Downs, approximate scheduled post time is 6:50PM. The field consists of 20 entrants who are vying to make history having their name on a placard in the paddock at the storied Churchill Downs. The weather forecast shows partly cloudy with ideal seasonal temps with a 20% chance of participation, but Friday’s forecast was for 90% rain so main track should be good with some bounce in it.
When I got into horse racing in mid 80’s, the Derby was a race that the bettors just were never right about. It took into the 2000’s to get a favorite to win. That trend has hit a major reversal, the betting favorite has won the last 5 years.
I’m a student of games of chance: rolling dice, playing blackjack, or finding value on a 4-legged animal I appreciate the math & science that can create a positive expectation (I love those 2 words). I really feel this is going to be one of the deepest classes we have saw in a long time, I think 2,3 or maybe even 4 of these horses could be right back here in November going to the gate in the 5 Million Classic.
When I was in college, I created a program to test a coin flip for a million trials with heads or tails. In this experiment, the longest trend of either result was 13 times. Once could surmise you could walk by a roulette wheel and if you see 13 straight blacks or reds, then it would be time to bet the other side? Not so fast, I am reminded by science that each flip is an independent event. Last year the Cleveland Indians won 22 straight games. I felt after game 20 they were going to lose so I played against them in game 21 and lost so yes streaks begin and end at some point but the question always becomes when? (side note: I ended up betting against the Indians in game 22 & game 23 doubling my bet each time and ended up cashing a nice ticket as they lost in game 23 as a huge favorite)
I really like the projected favorite Justify, but he has the Apollo jinx to not only overcome but he is facing a strong deep group of competition and the math seems astronomical to get another betting favorite? Doesn’t it?
For years, I have been giving an analytical analysis, so I am going to finally name it the Tiger Test, I use 3 criteria below to eliminate horses, last year I was able to eliminate 14 of 20 entrants and of my 6 horses left they ran 1st & 2nd. While, I am certainly not endorsing this as the only way to bet/analyze the race, it can give us a contrarian view of the race so let’s see what this year’s group looks like…….
The Apollo jinx is alive and well, no horse has won the Derby without racing at two since 1882 (Apollo). If you like angles, history has this angle on your side. Justify & Magnum Moon are two extremely talented horses and if this jinx is going to be broken, this could be the year.
Since 1980, 33 of the 38 Derby winners were out a winning dam. That is 86% and here are the ones that are NOT out of a race winning dam: Firenze Fire, Lone Sailor, Hofburg, My Boy Jack, Magnum Moon, Solomini, & Combatant.
Since 1996, 20 of the last 22 Derby winners finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep; the other 2 were Mine That Bird & Giacomo (2 of the 3 longest prices ever) who both finished 4th in their final preps both lighting up the board and paying over $100 to win. Firenze Fire, Free Drop Billy, Promises Fulfilled, Bravazo, Instilled Regard, Solomini, & Combatant can be eliminated.
After eliminating the ones above, 8 are still left: Flameaway, Audible, Good Magic, Bold d’ Oro, Enticed, Mendelssohn, Vino Rosso, & Noble Indy.
Some other interesting stats, the Wood prep race since 2003 has produced no on the board finishes with 29 starters, doesn’t bode to well for Enticed & Vino Rosso.
Enough stats & trends let’s look at some artistic formulation.
I would say 90% of the readers of this column haven’t watched all the prep races, thankfully yours truly has and here is my insight.
My eyes saw 3 things in the preliminary rounds
- I don’t like any of the Louisiana prep races, none of the horses impressed me and all seemed to stagger to the wire, I just can’t back any of them and see those races as C’s
- The best prep race I saw was San Felipe, I felt Bolt d’Oro & McKinzie ran their eyeballs out both earning triple digit Beyer speed figures, it a shame McKinzie got injured would have loved to see him in this race too, but like Baffert’s Arrogate who started blossoming late in the year, I don’t think we saw the last of him this season.
- I am just enamored with the Apollo Jinx horses Justify & Magnum Moon, both have done nothing wrong. Justify took right to them in the Santa Anita Derby & Magnum Moon was traveling faster at the end then the beginning of his last race which bodes well for a horse stretching out.
Alright, let’s dig a little deeper into this Apollo jinx. First off, the real reason no unraced two- year old hasn’t won the Derby in 100+ years is because of seasoning. Most horses need to face adversity, learn to get dirt kicked in their face, etc. The last big hope to try and fail was the great Curlin who exactly 11 years ago to the day came to Churchill Downs a perfect 3 for 3, got away 13th and rallied to finish 3rd beaten 7 lengths as a 5 to 1 2nd choice. We all know what happened after that, he went o Baltimore and turned the tables at the Preakness and never looked back earning 10 Million+, but still couldn’t win the Derby. I don’t know if either one of these or both could be the next Curlin, but so far, they both have the look. The question you must ask is do you want Ben Simmons or Lebron?
Time to separate the men from the boys, I really think any of my 1st 8 could easily win this and I wouldn’t be surprised, it’s that deep of a bunch.
Three hurdles all 20 entrants must overcome: First time racing in a 20-horse bulky field, first time going a mile and a quarter, and carrying 126 lbs. for the first time in their careers. Can we get 6straight favorites?
Contenders:
#11 Bolt d’Oro– Hasn’t crossed the finish line 1st since September of 2017 and had some back end physical problems early this year which cost him a race & training, but when he was unveiled, he came running on both efforts this season posting 100+ Beyer’s. There are tons of negatives about this horse: connections aren’t a household name, trainer only hitting a 5%, rider opted to ride elsewhere (although he did end up on a horse he has a long-standing relationship with trainer), and the “other horse” that shipped with this guy got obliterated on Wednesday’s undercard. I will be the 1st to admit, having this horse on top of my sheet is a huge surprise for me especially since I told a close Derby betting buddy in January that this is an absolute play against. Time’s change and so do opinions, now some positives to think about: Espinosa has won the Derby 3x he knows how to get it done, this horse’s running style should put him right in the race behind the speed which will be right in the catbird seat, and he will be amazing value as he was 7/5 against Justify in their latest showdown and he should be around 10 to 1 for the sequel. In a race filled with intrigue, he’s my stab to break the run of favorites, upset call.
#14 Mendelssohn– The last time I liked a horse that had won a turf race on the trail to the Derby that I bet was a horse you might have heard of, Barbaro. Not only has this guy won on turf but he has won on synthetic as well. Unofficially, I am certain this is the 1st Derby horse to have come into the Derby already having won on all 3 surfaces. His track record UAE Derby was as impressive as it gets having been used 3 times in the race and still winning by 18. Also, it certainly is also worth noting his big sister was Beholder who won 6 Million on the track. If you are looking for a flaw, there is only one as no horse across the pond has come in and won this so like the modern-day Apollo jinx, most handicappers have just pitched these runners as it just seems the Dubai travel to and from has proved too taxing. Like the 13x heads or tails synopsis above, streaks must end eventually, don’t they? Like the Apollo 1882 jinx, this foreign invader has a very good chance to reverse the curse.
#7 Justify– Rider Mike Smith when interviewed after the Santa Anita Derby simply kept saying this, “he’s just so talented”, bold words from a guy who has just about won every race repeatedly. I wanted to write this horse on top and even may end up betting him if the price is right. In his brief career he has done nothing wrong winning by open lengths in every start including a decision against my top pick in last. I only have him rated here simply because the Apollo history against him, the seasoning he lacks, and the fact he will be going into the gate as the choice and although independent events the racing Gods can’t bring in another public choice is why I am picking against him, couldn’t argue with anyone for backing him as he might turn out to be very special.
#16 Magnum Moon– Another runner in here that has done nothing wrong being a perfect 4 for 4 in his career, but he showed his greenness by running out in the lane in his last start, trainer has purposely pinned him on the rail in his workout tabs since which signals connections are a bit worried too. Was doing his best work late in his last, but got pedestrian fractions upfront which won’t be the case here. Love the rider Saez and he reminds me of when Rosario was on Orb a few years back, you just get the feeling this might be his year, needs to run a bit faster but I wouldn’t be shocked that he is up for the challenge, trainer Pletcher really likes this guy.
Selections: 11-14-7-16
Betability: Amazing, best betting Derby in years, I likely could adjust wagers on Derby day as the tote board value creates opportunity. Since you won’t be sitting next to me, don’t be afraid to use your own judgement to zig or zag, time for the greatest 2 minutes in sports!
Suggested Wagers:
9 & 11 to Win & Place for 1 unit
9 & 11 wheeled first and second in Exacta’s with All (except the 1,3,13, & 15) for 1 unit
Exacta Wheel 2 unit 7,11,14,16 / 2,4,5,6,7,8,8,10,11,12,14,16,17,18,19,20
Trifecta Wheel ($112 for $1) 7,14 / 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,16,17,18,19,20 / 2,9,11,18
Trifecta Wheel ($112 for $1) 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,16,17,18,19,20 / 7,14 / 2,9,11,18
Superfecta Wheel for 1 unit 7,14 / 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,16,17,18,19,20 / 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,16,17,18,19,20 / 2,9,11,18 ($1456 a unit) (for large budget players only)
Saver bet: 1 unit Exacta Box, 2,4,7,9,11,14,16.17.& 18
Should you be interested in the Oaks on Friday, it is a 14-horse competitive field, I like Monomoy Girl (#14), she has never been out of the exacta in 6 career starts and has had success over this oval already, the post is a challenge but should only inflate the price.
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#11 Bolt d’Oro – 9 to 1, flying a bit below the radar, but projects to get ideal trip, it’s Cinco De Mayo too which can only help the Mexican connections
#14 Mendelssohn- 6 to 1, the best Dubai prep horse ever entered, history is against him talent isn’t
#7 Justify- 7 to 2, Baffert, Smith, unblemished, all factors point here but he will need to buck some history
#16 Magnum Moon- 8 to 1,the 1A to Justify, won’t get his way which means this is the deepest water he has ever been in
#5 Hofburg- 19 to 1, my wise guy horse, getting better each week by leaps and bounds, live long shot
#18 Vino Rosso- 16 to 1, everyone else’s wise guy horse, took a big step fwd. in Wood and barn buzz is all systems go, take a very long look
#6 Good Magic- 14 to 1, juvenile champ comes int this off an impressive prep score, very easy to endorse but had to fit him somewhere
#5 Audible- 20 to 1, distance challenged and a win by him would be a complete back to back Derby connection score, unlikely but should factor
#9 Solomini- 30 to 1, has kept some damn good company and seems to always enjoy a nice slice, don’t think he can win but could get his number hung on board
#4 Flameaway – 35 to 1, Rodney Dangerfield of group, does all the work but gets no respect, a B player
#12 Enticed- 35 to 1, regressed in Wood, Godolphin getting closer to Derby glory, but won’t be this year
#2 Free Drop Billy- 40 to 1, was interfered with in last, but wasn’t going to win, local based runner will be hitting best stride late, exotic flyer
#10 My Boy Jack- 40 to 1, needed to race 3 weeks ago just to get in race, another late runner who will be coming late, a notch below but again could land somewhere
#19 Noble Indy- 40 to 1, speed player who likely will press pace then fade, not for me
#8 Lone Sailor- 50 to 1, late runner very inconsistent, 0 for 2 at track as a 2-year-old, up against it
#20 Combatant- 75 to 1, late addition to the field and will have a long way to go from 20 hole
#1 Firenze Fire- 75 to 1, going in wrong direction, the rail officially eliminated him
#15 Instilled Regard- 100 to 1, Million-dollar buyer will be on the grass in his next start
#3 Promises Fulfilled- 300 to 1, You will know him early, but not know him late
#3 Bravazo- 400 to 1, Nice to see Coach & Calumet have a runner in here, but that is where the fun stops
This year’s Preakness should see some very intriguing new shooters, be sure to follow along with me on the Triple Crown trail as that publication will be out May 17 at as well as the Belmont Stakes on June 7th at www.equineinvestor.com
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com