Kentucky Derby-(Louisville, Kentucky) the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby is carded as race 12 this Saturday at Churchill Downs, approximate scheduled post time is 6:57PM. The field consists of 20 entrants who are vying to make history having their name forever etched in racing lore. The weather forecast is projecting a dry strip with lower temperatures, should be a fair playing course without a massive speed bias.
Horse racing continues to die a slow death, as an insider yes it’s self-inflicted but also times change. Attendance is down, wagering dollars are down, and gambling can be done in 26 states outside of Nevada and toss in DC area for good measure. The technology of internet gambling means casino and sports wagering can happen in seconds, so how does a game compete 20-25 minutes between races? The answer is it can’t, but the first Saturday in May is and always will be special.
Having owned, handicapped, and most importantly been a fan of Thoroughbred, Standardbred, and even Greyhound Racing, I get a lot of communication from racing fans ranging from the astute horse player to the casual fan that only watches or bets the Derby. One particular casual fan, Big Troy from Southwestern PA repeatedly sends me texts, videos, and picture of his favorite horse of all-time, Secretariat. Now let me clarify, I don’t get that Derby week, I get them around Christmas, 4th of July, and anywhere in between, you see racing captures a man’s heart, when it does, these magnificent athletes stick with that man forever. Everyone wants a new hero……
Last year we had a very formful Derby, my top rated 6 selections ran 1-2-3-4 which produced low payouts and little excitement, much of that was because of Journalism, the favorite, ran 2nd with logical contenders all around him. This year it has the feel of a completely different setup.
To begin, the morning line favorite drew the #1 post and is listed at 4 to 1, Renegade. The rail at Derby is mainly considered a death spot for horses as they can easily get jammed up inside. Years ago, it used to start inside the rail trajectory so horses needed to go right then left to avoid hitting it, since 2020 a new gate was implemented which allows them a straight line. The last horse to win from the rail was Ferdinand in 1986, 40 years ago, reason to salivate if you are a long shot player.
More reason for mayhem, I call this the take a different girl home from the dance theory. Ok ok, so when we were kids, you went to these dances….i.e Prom, Sadie Hawkins, etc.. traditionally it’s always been taught, whoever you take to the dance, you take back home. Well this is 2026, and times have changed 😊
Top Jockeys are like top professional sports athletes they are sought after, such as Ohtani, Durant, Parsons….two big names, Flavien Prat & Irad Ortiz, both qualified multiple horse for the Derby, so they had to make a choice who to ride and the horses they defected from are co-2nd choices at 6 to 1 ML (#6 Commandment & #18 Further Ado). Let’s keep it simple, the trainer of those 2 horses want to prove the jockeys wrong and the jockeys who jumped off want to do their best to show they made the right choice, that spells a donnybrook.
Make no mistake, this is the best race to bet on US soil, we are left to figure out whose day it will be, it could be anyone’s.
Let’s start eliminating and identifying pretenders,
First, there is the Tiger Test, analytically I use 3 criteria below to eliminate horses, just another way to look at things statistically:
The Apollo jinx/curse was finally broken by Justify in 2018 and then again by Mage in 2023, but that is only 3 horses in history from 1882 to 2025 for that feat to be accomplished and there were tons of failed attempts in between so I won’t abandon this angle into the future as non-starting 2 year old’s are traditionally pitches in the Derby for me, this year we have four and they are ALL legit contenders: Puma, Chief Wallabee, Potente, Emerging Market. So do we go old school or new school? For now, at least you have the data.
Since 1980, 40 of the 46 Derby winners were out of a winning dam. That is 87% and here are the ones that are NOT out of a race winning dam: Albus, Intrepido, Litmus Test, Right to Party, Wonder Dean, Chief Wallabee, Silent Tactic, Emerging Market, and Great White (AE) & Robusto (AE).
Since 1996, 26 of the last 30 (86%) Derby winners who crossed the wire 1st finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep; the other 4 were Mine That Bird, Giacomo, Mystik Dan, & Rich Strike (3 of the 4 longest prices ever) who finished 3rd or 4th in their final preps lighting up the board and paying over $100 to win. Intrepido, Litmus test, Chief Wallabee, Golden Tempo, and all the AE horses can be eliminated.
That screener leaves us 9 horses, probability says one of those will be getting unsaddled in the infield.
The puzzle is now starting to take shape but important there are three hurdles all 20 entrants must overcome: First time racing in a 20 horse bulky field, first time going a mile and a quarter, and US based runners carrying 126 lbs for the first time in their careers. What does the Crystal Ball say………..
Contenders:
#18 Further Ado– Trainer Cox grew up in Louisville and has certainly made a name for himself, he brings three horses into this event and I think this one has the best chance. When he was interviewed after the draw, he liked where this guy landed (last year’s winner Sovereignty had same post). Like how easily he won his last race in Lexington and now just makes the 80 mile journey to Churchill Downs where he is only 1 of 3 horses to have a victory over this oval. Sure Irad defects, but IMO if the jockey could choose after the draw he would have never defected. Don’t worry though, connections pick up Johnny V who has crossed the wire 1st in this event 4x, Ted Williams pinch hitting for Babe Ruth.
#6 Commandment– Sticking with Cox theme, here’s another runner that has a local win over the strip breaking his maiden in Nov 25’ by 5 lengths. I really think the FL Derby is a key race (and has been for years as last year’s winner ran 2nd) Hard not to like the back-to-back triple digit Beyer’s, he also has the running style fit for Derby success stalk, grind, and pounce. The only real negative is last race rider bailed for Emerging Market, but I actually consider that a positive as connections pickup Saez who IMO is the best rider over this oval, there was Pat Day, then Calvin Borel, now Luis Saez who always seems to make the right move at this track and boy can he finish. This one is interchangeable with my top pick, big chance.
#9 Puma- Beat my top pick in Tampa Derby and lost to a nose by my 2nd pick in Florida Derby, so if I like those two I gotta like him as well right? Beyer’s continuing to ascend and trainer won this in 23’ with Mage, certainly lots to like. Now the other side of coin, connections stated prior to Tampa Derby this guy hates kick back so they kept him wide, they don’t get that luxury here; also, didn’t love his gallop out after Florida Derby as he looked awfully spent which he had every right to as he went the biggest trip that day. Other hurdles, 1st time out of Florida, his trainer has only won 4 races all year, mixed feelings but a talented horse.
#14 Potente– Baffert with horses in Derby, what is not to like. This guy might have had the most impressive drill leading up to this race with an eye catching 57 4/5 bullet over this ground, means he is on his toes and ready roll. I can forgive the Santa Anita Derby loss as he got dogged from the bell and won the battle but lost the war. He cost 2.4 Million so would need to win this just to break even, he can race from on or off the pace but knowing Baffert he likely will be forwardly placed, not sure he has enough seasoning to win this, but a wildcard in a wide-open event.
Selections: 18-6-9-14
Betability: excellent betting race, very evenly matched race which could lead to numerous rewarding combinations. This is the toughest race to handicap and win that is run in North America so there is always that chance for the unknown. Track bias and a potential scratch or two could always stir the pot. If reaching on a longshot, be sure to ladder him in the trifecta and superfecta underneath.
Suggested Wagers:
6 & 18 to Win & Place for 1 unit
6 & 18 wheeled first and second in Exacta’s with All for 1 unit
Trifecta box 8 horses for 1 unit ($336 a unit (.50 play would be $168)) 1,6,7, 9,10, 12,14,18
Superfecta Wheel for 1 unit 6,18 / ALL / ALL / 1,13,15 ($1836 a unit)
Saver bet: 1 unit Exacta Box 1,6,7,8,9,10,12,13,14,15,18 ($110)
Should you be interested in the Oaks on Friday, it is the most wide-open Oaks I have seen in years, anyone can win, I am grudgingly going to stick with #1 Explora. Yes she drew the rail, but giver her due as 7 for 7 in Exacta and has been the betting favorite in every race having never been higher than 3/2 and you will get 5 to 1. If price shopping, I love #4 Counting Stars, I think she has a ton of upside and has been a bit erratic which will enhance her betting price.
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#18 Further Ado – 5 to 1, horse for state as a perfect 3 for 3 in Kentucky, same saddle pad won last year, the pick.
#6 Commandment- 6 to 1, the other Cox entry, interchangeable with my top pick, hard to ignore public support and triple digit Beyers.
#9 Puma- 12 to 1, both trainer and rider have won this before, another step forward makes him awfully dangerous.
#14 Potente- 15 to 1, fantastic final tuneup, Baffert shoots for his 7th Derby, all systems go and a live longshot.
#1 Renegade- 7 to 1, got the worst of the draw but that only juiced his price, not his chances, Repole overdue for Derby success.
#12 Chief Wallabee- 10 to 1, Three parimutuel starts and was bet under 3 to 1 in each effort, too green to win this but can make a run.
#15 Emerging Market- 14 to 1, Prat stays loyal to this guy but with only 2 runs in his career faces a huge hurdle, future is bright.
#13 Silent Tactic- 22 to 1, danced every dance in ARK and was never worse than 2nd, running style a plus, a live longshot.
#16 Pavlovian – 30 to 1, Cal Bred has actually fared well against open company, his game is speed, seasoned with a puncher’s chance.
#10 Wonder Dean- 30 to 1, import has had 6 different riders in 6 starts, now gets a 7th rider, hurdles are significant, best foreign hope.
#19 Golden Tempo- 30 to 1, run an AI model on this race and dosage wise he is considered the pick, could easily see him running on.
#3 Intrepido- 40 to 1, last 2 workouts were sensational, maybe lightbulb went on, would need to run faster to compete.
#8 So Happy- 40 to 1, trainer lost his wife recently, the feel good story of this edition, but sprint breeding in a bulky field isn’t ideal.
#7 Danon Bourbon- 40 to 1, Japan import has already carried 126 twice, so that is checked off list, KY breeding so one day the jinx will broken, not sure it’s this year.
#20 Fulleffort- 30 to 1, have a lot of respect for what Cox says and he did NOT like this draw, never been on dirt, not for me.
#17 Six Speed- 50 to 1, from here down you can start lining them out, never like to see a horse sell for 50K when his stud fee was 250K.
#5 Right to Party – 50 to 1, only Beastie Boys can appreciate this guy, nothing out of NY in years has been a factor, trend continues.
#11 Incredibolt- 50 to 1, only positive is 2 for 2 at CD, not fast enough, not for me.
#4 Litimus Test 75 to 1, only made it in the race due to defections, adds a hood which will not help, has a chance to be last.
#2 Albus – 50 to 1, upset win in Wood got him a spot in starting gate and connections a saddle pad, enjoy.
#21 Great White- 150 to 1, would need to draw in and improve 22 lengths against my top pick, not happening.
This year’s Preakness should see some very intriguing new shooters, be sure to follow along with my on the Triple Crown trail as that publication will be out May 13 at as well as the Belmont Stakes on June 5th at www.equineinvestor.com
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com