Preakness Stakes-The 150th running of the Preakness stakes is carded as race 13 this Saturday at Pimlico Racecourse, approximate scheduled post time is 7:01 PM. The field consists of 9 entrants who are vying for the 2nd Jewel of the Triple Crown. The weather forecast is projecting isolated showers throughout the week, but Saturday is slated to have 15% chance of scattered showers with very warm temps in 80’s, projected fast track.
Horse racing continues to die a slow death, but this week is the end of a major era as this will be the last time the Preakness will be raced at “The Old Hilltop”. Pimlico will be demolished after this year and a new racino will be erected that will include a hotel, amenities etc… so Pimlico can race all year round. Yes, these fresh racino’s are neat but goes away is the nostalgia of the wooden stands, outside box seats, so the purest lose the history feel that you get at a Saratoga or Santa Anita.
The game has changed over the years, they used to run the tires off them, now you are lucky to see 6-8 starts for the whole year. That has taken a lot of emphasis on Derby runners NOT wheeling back in 2 weeks, but fortunately this year we get Journalism (who was the Derby favorite) to come to Baltimore so for the swan song we have a headliner. We also get American Promise & Sandman, so a 1/3 of the field is from the Derby.
Surprised we didn’t get a 12-horse field as this year does appear wide open, Journalism didn’t even commit until the day before entries, but for a small field it is solid to watch and wager on.
Some analytics to add into your handicapping:
The Preakness plays to speed. In the last 38 running’s, 25 of those 38 winners were sitting 1-4 at the first call.
Derby runners have come back to win the Preakness 42 of the last 55 editions.
The race’s history has had 73 favorites win in the 149 running’s, that is a 49% clip.
Only 7 of the last 38 races were won wire to wire.
Since 1997, 11 of the past 25 Derby winners have doubled up in the Preakness; Furthermore, 17 of the last 25 Derby winners have been no worse than 2nd although that doesn’t matter this year as Sovereignty is skipping the race.
Should you be wagering on Friday, two big races on the card. Race 12 Pimlico Special for older horses, the #7 Pyrenees makes his first start since the BC Classic and has run well fresh before, the one to beat. Race 13 is the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, wide open event that only got 9 contestants who have more questions then answers, I like the local connections with #7 Reply who is 8 to 1 morning line and will be rolling late.
Contenders:
#2 Journalism– Ran a bang-up Derby and all the hype was real as he got squeezed at the start, made a nice protracted move, and just got beat by a horse that got the better trip. The deserved favorite but doesn’t come in here without questions. Connections waited until last minute to enter, had they been all in they would have announced intentions immediately. Not sure I love the inside draw, yes he has tactical speed to get involved but the long run in front of the stands the first time usually goes a bit quicker then most like. Baffert is on the record saying his horse doesn’t like kickback so I am sure he will be gunning from the bell. I have also sat in these stands for last 25 years and have witnessed some very good animals get in dog fights to the wire and just a little starch was taken out of him Derby day. With all that said, he’s the class of the race and proved he can flourish outside of Cali so Maryland should be a hurdle he can handle. Obvious choice at short price.
#1 Goal Oriented – Bob Baffert still owns tbred racing and owns the Preakness having won it a record 8 times. Hard to argue to statistics. This guy also ran on Derby Day on the undercard winning easily in Allowance race making him a perfect 2 for 2 in his brief career. The rail draw is not ideal and Baffert stated, ‘it’s not my problem, it’s Prat’s (who is the jockey)”. I would have loved if this guy drew outside, but in life you take the cards you are given and play them and this is a star in the making.
#8 Clever Again- Another inexperienced runner in the field that will be making only his 4th career start, but he is very exciting and the wise guy horse of the field. I absolutely loved his 2 yr. old bow going 4 ½ at CD where he ran a Ward horse right the wire and Uncle Steve usually doesn’t have 2 yr. olds cranked to win first asking. From there, he dominated at Oaklawn winning by open lengths, yes he jumps into deep end of the pool, but he should be on or near the lead and I think this could be a future handicap horse.
#7 Sandman- Another horse that exits the Derby with a late running 7th place finish, and he was actually the 2nd choice in the wagering. Cost 1.2 Mil so lots of expectations but he is your true in and outer. When you expect an effort he gives a dud, when you dismiss him he comes running, the true closer of the race and any hot pace up front will only help the grey’s chances.
Selections: 2-1-8-7
Betability: Excellent, chalk could win, but some unknown’s underneath make for a great betting race.
Suggested Wagers:
1 unit Win Place #2
2 unit Exacta Box Key #2 with #1, #7, #8
1 unit Trifecta wheel #2 & #8 with #1, #2, #4, #6, #7, #8 with #1, #7, #8
1 unit Superfecta wheel #2 with #1, #2, #4, #6, #7, #8 with #1, #2, #4, #6, #7, #8 with #1, #7, #8
1 unit Exacta Box saver #1, #7, #8
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#2 Journalism 1 to 1, if he’s 90%, he will be hard to deny, the best horse on paper at a short price.
#1 Goal Oriented- 4 to 1, would need to take a big step forward, but pedigree and connections are there.
#8 Clever Again- 4 to 1, could see him winning and could see the class test making him vulnerable.
#7 Sandman 6 to 1, best late speed in the race will get a minor slice, over hyped IMO.
#6 River Thames- 6 to 1, great Beyer’s fits like a glove in here but I view him as a hanger.
#9 Gosger- 10 to 1, the other grey in the race gets a nice cozy outside draw to survey the action, lands Saez.
#4 Heart of Honor- 30 to 1, the horse that beat him in UAE got destroyed in Derby, not for me.
#3 American Promise- 30-1, coach won this last year, I don’t believe in lightning striking twice.
#4 Pay Billy- 50-1, the local hope with the Tesio score, for conspiracy theorists only, they would burn grandstand down if he won.
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com
Note, the Belmont Stakes this year is being held at the famed Saratoga Racecourse and will be contested at the same Derby distance of a mile and a quarter, we will have write-up out by June 6th.
ALL SELECTIONS & SUGGESTED WAGERS ON WWW.EQUINEINVESTOR.COM ARE OPINIONS OF THE HANDICAPPER; THERE ARE NO GUARENTEES OF WINNING OR MAKING A PROFIT. THIS IS STRICTLY INFORMATIONAL.OFL SELECTIONS PROVIDED