Belmont Stakes-The 146th running of Belmont stakes is carded as race 11 this Saturday at Belmont Park in Elmont, NY, approximate scheduled post time is 6:52 PM. The field consists of 11 entrants who are vying for the 3rd Jewel of the Triple Crown. The weather forecast has been dry leading up to the weekend and is going to be partly sunny with ideal temps, perfect course.
As I drove home from Baltimore after the Preakness, I flashbacked for a minute and wondered what the front cover of the Daily Racing Form would look like Belmont day. For the newcomers to the sport since 2009, you likely haven’t experienced Pierre Bellocq otherwise commonly referred to as simply Peb. For my long-time readers and racing fans, let’s take a ride down memory lane.
Peb is an equine cartoonist, from 1955 to December 2008 he did covers for the Daily Racing Form and sister publications that always focused on the major races and the players involved. His work told a story without words. I personally couldn’t wait to see the covers and in some ways, they could even paint a picture of who to bet or handicap, all that from a simple drawing. I strongly encourage all fans to check out his web site and see a glimpse of his great work. www.pebsite.com
While technology is great, it has taken away some of the good things in life. I love the Daily Racing Form; in fact, it’s the only source I use for handicapping. The information is clear, concise, and I have used it for 25+ years. But the changes, which I am sure are a direct result of cost cutting certainly cut to the bone. First Peb’s satire cartoons were removed and more recently the new racing forms are in an 8” x 11” booklet form, the old ones used to be normal newspaper size that had large print, were easier to read, and yes you got black film all over your hands. Maybe they made the change to protect the players who couldn’t go home to their wives after a day at the races and said they were at work, the black finger tips gave away where they really were, I doubt it but it’s good to rationalize.
I miss Peb’s covers and the big forms; fortunately I still have 11” x 17” paper in my office so now I print my own forms. While I do not have a creative mind, I envision if Peb were drawing for the Daily Racing Form today, he likely would show a bunch of past Triple Crown winners on a cloud in Heaven, watching down to see if California Chrome can climb the staircase and be the first Triple Crown winner since 1978 when Affirmed accomplished the feat.
The Belmont is a flashback in time as well, as this will be the only time 3 year olds will line up to go a mile and half on North American dirt. The “new era” of racing doesn’t train for endurance, it’s all about speed. The Breeders Cup which unofficially is horse racing’s Super Bowl, World Series, or Stanley Cup even cancelled the Marathon this year. In simple terms, this is the only test for endurance on dirt and it will be a tough one for California Chrome to pass.
Despite the logic that closers would have advantage with the extra 2 furlongs, the last Belmont winner to rally from over 10 lengths back was Jazil in 2006. Besides needing to be sitting close, favorites have also scored in 61 of the 145 for 42% clip. In those running’s, no winner has won from the 12-14 post and the 10 & 11 post has a total of 4 wins, granted there haven’t been many big Belmont fields, but it is still something to keep in mind especially since the turn comes up quick since this is a one loop race and outside posts could be compromised.
Everywhere I go, I get the same question, “Is he going to do it in the Belmont?” The he obviously is California Chrome
Naysayers can argue all the following points:
-he isn’t bred like a world class horse (not sure the camp or horse cares)
-he has gotten two good setup trips (yes he got a nice journey in both the Derby & Preakness, but his talent put him in those spots)
-35 years it hasn’t been done and it’s a grueling feat to win 3 classics in 5 weeks………(WELL IT’S ABOUT TIME)
Contenders:
#2 California Chrome– I have been following racing since 1985 and there have been some very good horses that have failed passing the last Triple Crown hurdle, but I can say with conviction, that I feel this horse is simply that much better than his generation and that large gap will give horse racing what it needs, a new hero. He’s training great over the track and his camp says he’s doing as good as ever. His career started a little less than a year ago on June 15th, 2013; this will mark his 13th lifetime start, this throwback type of foundation will make the difference getting the ground needed. From humble beginnings to approximately 2:30 to immortality, buckle up and enjoy the ride.
#4 Commanding Curve– Juiced up the exotic payoffs on Derby day, but will be highly regarded in here. One of the owners came out and virtually assured a victory, not sure if he was on a controlled substance or simply he couldn’t hold his emotions. Regardless, it’s a tip-off the camp is high on him and they are out to prove his surging 2nd place Derby effort wasn’t a fluke. Stewart needs a race like this to get out of Lukas’s shadow, he should relish this distance, but he still has only a maiden score on his resume in 7 career spins and he’s again against a proven prize fighter, needs to take a big step forward to get unsaddled in the circle.
#5 Ride On Curlin– Talk about Rodney Dangerfield of horse racing, this guy gets his third rider in the Triple Crown series and he has run pretty well in both the Derby & Preakness. Before you start shedding a tear for trainer Bronco Billy he did pick up John Velazquez who knows this track better than anyone and has won this race. Like Chrome, he has a good foundation under him with this going to be his 12th career start and that is a big bonus on the stretch-out. He ran a game 3rd last year in the Champagne stakes, don’t ignore.
#1 Medal Count- My wise guy horse as he got a bad trip in the Derby but is bred to get this type of trip, should save ground from the rail and pick up faders in the lane. Only thing I am not too excited about is he didn’t train over the track and many comparisons have been made that this surface is playing like Santa Anita’s main track and this guy got trounced at Santa Anita last fall. Romans is a crafty trainer, should he take to the surface I think he is logical exotic filler at a big price.
Selections: 2-4-5-1
Betability: Perplexing, so maybe that is good? 3/5 on Chrome could be a great bet for a chalk player although I would venture he might trickle into the 1/2 range or lower; longshot players who are looking for value will find it in the other 10 starters so if you think Chrome is going to get stuck in the gate, might be a great chance to try to cash-in. Regardless of which direction you go, the entire card is one of the best in New York racing history and here are some angles in other races I like:
Race 3- #5 Ever Rider
Race 4- #9 Positive Side
Race 5- #5 Coup de Grace
Race 6- #8 My Miss Sophia
Race 7- #5 Beholder
Race 8- #8 Waterway Run
Race 9- #4 Goldencents
Race 10- #6 Seek Again
Good Luck to all.
Suggested Wagers:
#5 Win, Place, Show for 1 unit
Exacta wheel #2 with #1, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11 for 1 unit
Trifecta wheel #2 with #1, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11 with ALL for 1 unit
Trifecta wheel #2 with ALL with #1, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11 for 1 unit
Superfecta wheel #2 with #1, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11 with ALL with #1 & #5 for 1 unit
Superfecta wheel #2 with #1, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11 with #1 & #5 with ALL for 1 unit
Exacta wheel #2 with #1 & #5 for 3 units
Saver Exacta box, #1, #4, #5, #9 for 1 unit
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#2 California Chrome- 1 to 2, don’t think he can lose on the square, stalks, pops, wins.
#4 Commanding Curve- 18 to 1, likely to be over bet and doesn’t have to run 2nd, but a big chance if he moves forward.
#5 Ride On Curlin- 15 to 1, blue-collar horse that will factor for a slice, might end up being modern day Sham.
#1 Medal Count 25 to 1, to me the key to making money in the exotics if he fires.
#9 Wicked Strong- 15 to 1, ran a game 4th in the Derby but is getting way too much respect in here, needs a lot more.
#11 Tonalist- 20 to 1, Peter Pan winners usually burn money in this spot, I think he will continue that trend.
#10 General A Rod- 30 to 1, made a nice late run in the Preakness which is sneaky good for Rosie fans.
#7 Samraat- 25 to 1, figures to be the pace factor and will get run over in the lane, NY bred races to follow.
#8 Commissioner- 40 to 1, was highly regarded earlier this season, hasn’t lived up to that billing.
#3 Matterhorn- 50-1, not sure why he is in here, would need a huge move forward to just get a check
#8 Matuszak- 75-1, running to get a saddle cloth, Kid Cruz beat him in last and that runner was embarrassed to even enter this, pass.
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com