Preakness Stakes -The 139 running of the Preakness stakes is carded as race 12 this Saturday at Pimlico Racecourse, approximate scheduled post time is 6:18 PM. The field consists of 10 entrants who are vying for the 2nd Jewel of the Triple Crown with California Chrome trying to become the 1st Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. The weather forecast is projecting heavy rain all day Friday, but Saturday is slated to have mild temperatures, partly cloudy, and no precipitation on Preakness day. The massive amount of rain projected Friday still could leave a Muddy or Sloppy track on Saturday.
As a horse owner, there are many times I have strategized with my trainer and rider of how we planned on “racing”. In essence, drawing it up on paper and executing a plan. Unfortunately, it rarely works out on paper the way we drew it up. California Chrome’s camp had a game plan in the Derby to sit close, stalk the pace, and draw off in the lane while avoiding traffic and trouble. That plan, worked to perfection.
Two weeks to the day, they look to get another favorable setup as there appears to be some solid speed signed on and from my vantage point he should be sitting 3rd or 4that the half ready to make another bold move on the turn.
I handicap all the Triple Crown races before the draw as to not be swayed by odds makers or other industry pundits so when I sat down and made my value line, I thought 4/5 was good value on California Chrome. It turns out he is programmed at 3/5 and Mike Watchmaker of the Daily Racing Formlists him at 2/5 on his line.
Yes Mr. Watchmaker, Jeff Siegel, and a host of others including yours truly landed on the Chrome in the Derby and he did reward his backers with a non-threatened easy victory. I said this before the Derby, he is the best of his generation, but maybe he’s not a super horse. The Derby was ran pedestrian and take nothing away from Chrome, he went as fast as he needed to win. I still am of the opinion, he’s just head and shoulders above this group of three year olds and after Chrome there seems to be a big drop-off.
I love going to the Preakness, it is always a great party, but rarely a place to test the light bulbs on the tote board, and it’s a very formful race, some stats to chew on:
The Preakness plays to speed. In the last 27 running’s, 16 of those 27 winners were sitting 1-4 at the first call.
Derby runners have come back to win the Preakness 37 of the last 44 editions.
The race’s history has had 70 favorites win in the 138 running’s, that is a 50% clip.
Only 3 of the last 27 races were won wire to wire which Oxbow did last year (Rachel Alexandra & Louis Quatorze the other ones).
Since 1997, 8 of the past 17 Derby winners have doubled up in the Preakness; Furthermore, 12 of the last 17 Derby winners have been no worse than 2nd.
These stats have to be making Art Sherman, Victor Espinosa, and the owners Coburn & Martin pretty darn excited.
I would like to point out a reason I think California Chrome is where he is at right now both physically and mentally. One word…..foundation.
Most three year olds win a maiden race and immediately get thrown into a stake to which they try the Derby on 3-4 starts or even try to win the Derby without having raced at 2 known as the Apollo jinx which has survived since 1882. I don’t think it takes a genius to figure out that rushing horses just doesn’t work. It took a 77 year old trainer who does it the old fashioned way to bring a horse to the Derby with 7 starts as a two-year old and now 4 starts at three to be peaking both mentally and physically.
Should you be wagering on Friday, bring a life jacket and a canoe, you will need it to get to and from your car. Although mother nature was very kind Derby weekend, she is going to be relentless Friday and will likely cause multiple scratches and likely move most if not all the turf races to the main track but Pimlico is offering a hall of fame jockey challenge as well as a female retired jockey race in coordination with the Susan Komen foundation, should make for 2 great days of racing.
Contenders:
#3 California Chrome– Last year, I actually felt stronger about Orb’s chances in Baltimore then this guy’s and Orb was programmed even money and went off 3/5 having come into this with the exact same record a perfect 4 for 4 on the year. Unfortunately for Orb, he ran off the board and never won another race. I don’t see the same result as even if Chrome somehow gets beat, I think he will factor again this year. If you’re looking for a reason to play against, I guess the unknown of an off-track exists since he hasn’t raced yet on a wet track, but having won on synthetic and the fact he has a strong Tomlinson wet rating (391), I dispel that conspiracy theory. I hate the price, but trying to beat him seems against all logic, the easy choice.
#10 Ride on Curlin– Reaching for a little spice underneath as this guy ducked to dead last in the Derby and Borel worked his way through traffic to run a game 7th only beat 6 ¾ lengths. Picks up Rosario who had a horrific Preakness day last year, but has the microscope off his back and this is another horse who could get a cozy spot sitting 4th or 5th and make a run late to get some minor rewards. Like the fact connections have run him back in here and he does have tactical racing skills to let rider call an audible if pace is too fast, tons of foundation as well with this being his 11th career try. His daddy Curlin won this event, don’t sell too short.
#7 Kid Cruz– Tesio winners typically fail in this spot, but the locals love to support them and this guy brings another feel good story to the table as he was claimed for $50,000 in November of 2013 and the new owners allowed the old owners to buy back in to enjoy the ride. Running style suggests he will be near the back and looking to pick-up whatever pieces fall in his lap. He has turf breeding on the bottom and sports a 407 Tomlinson wet track rating so surface won’t be an issue. Rider Pimentel stated, “He just keeps running in the lane”. The only runner in the field to have a race over the track, a very nice longshot.
#8 Social Inclusion- Has the highest Beyer in the field when he ran the future Derby book favorite Honor Code into submission in that one’s seasonal debut which prompted connections to run in the Wood. Trainer has since stated, “He will never lose again”. No doubt he is fast, but he’s only making his 4th career start and his first time against graded runners he ran a game 3rd behind Wicked Strong & Samraat but both of those runners have already been beaten by California Chrome. Also, it is expected he will have company on the lead. To me, he is getting way too much respect, but should make some noise, how much we will see.
Selections : 3-10-7-8
Betability: None, we go from 20 horses to bet in the Derby to being cut in half to 10, hard to find much value unless you think a fan will run on the track or lighting will strike the starting gate, but even the great Barbaro ran into an unfortunate accident. We are due for chalk.
Suggested Wagers:
2 unit Exacta wheel #3 with #1, #5, #7, #8, #9, & #10
1 unit Trifecta wheel #3 with #1, #5, #7, #8, #9, #10 with ALL
1 unit Superfecta wheel #3 with #1, #5, #7, #8, #9, #10 with #7 & #10 with ALL
1 unit Superfecta wheel #3 with #1, #5, #7, #8, #9, #10 with ALL with #7 & #10
1 unit Exacta Box saver #1, #7, #8, #9, #10
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#3 California Chrome- 4 to 5, food for thought, an industry insider texted me Derby day and said the horse wasn’t even a 100% having a mild cough, scary he might be that good at less than perfect.
#10 Ride on Curlin 9 to 1, would need a lot to fall his way, but I think he will factor.
#7 Kid Cruz- 18 to 1, late runner would need to move up drastically to win, but he’s good enough for a slice.
#8 Social Inclusion- 10 to 1, Speedball will play catch me if you can, let’s see how far he goes.
#5 Bayern 15 to 1, loved his Derby Trail, but they took the hood back off, has been the betting favorite in every career race, that streak ends today.
#9 Pablo Del Monte- 20 to 1, trainer is gushing about how he is coming into this and his Bluegrass was good, unknown type unproven on dirt.
#1 Dynamic Impact- 25 to 1, running lines look similar to Danza, has been growing up fast but this is a big step forward class wise.
#4 Ring Weekend- 25 to 1, failed miserably in a FL stake in which he was 1/5; since then has had a bump or two in the road, not the spot to be coming back.
#8 General A Rod 40 to 1, first the owner bailed on him, this time it’s the rider, heading the wrong direction.
#6 Ria Antonia- 100 to 1, has only crossed the finish line first once in 8 career starts, not sure why they entered as Preakness tickets are easy to get, filly is a rank outsider and may pass a few but a line-out for a purse check.
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com